Oscars Analysis: ‘Sinners’ Raises The Stakes But Is It Up To The ‘Battle’ In A Year Of Few Surprises?

Despite all the ink being spread about snubs and surprises at today’s nominations for the 98th Annual Academy Awards, I was actually only surprised by how few “snubs” and “surprises” there really were.

In the new reality of Oscar, it is lots of love for the few that manage to spend to get there, or at the very least ignite a campaign that pays off in the multitude of precursor awards that predict which movies Oscar voters put at the top of their must-see lists, and ultimately the names of movies we will hear read off over and over during the Academy’s announcement (this year by Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman).

Yes, Warner Bros had a stellar morning with 30 nominations, but not a single one of them was a surprise. I actually pre-wrote our story on Sinners breaking the all-time record of Oscar nominations (previously held by All About Eve, Titanic, La La Land each with 14). I only had to fill in the number in the headline which was 16. It was abundantly clear this terrific Ryan Coogler film was going to run the table and land a nomination in every category it was eligible. The only real question was would the great Delroy Lindo make the cut, or possibly newcomer Miles Caton instead after he got the Actors Award nod from SAG. In the end it was the veteran Lindo who prevailed. The showing alone of Sinners should quell the diversity controversies the Academy has faced in recent years – at least for this year.

And the only surprise in the mammoth 13 nominations for Warners’ One Battle After Another was that it didn’t grab a 14th for newcomer Chase Infiniti in the lead actress category, but hometown favorite Kate Hudson, the only nomination for Focus Features Song Sung Blue, snagged it instead. After similar nominations for Golden Globes and Actor Awards, it too was not a surprise and in the last days leading to, and including, the voting period, Focus blitzed the TV airwaves with ads emphasizing her performance. Interestingly she joins both Bugonia’s Emma Stone and Hamnet‘s Jessie Buckley for Focus dominating in the category with three of the five nominees.

And speaking of Focus, maybe it was a bit of a surprise that the specialty arm of Universal Pictures is completely holding the flag for the studio with eight nominations for Hamnet and four for Bugonia in addition to Hudson’s, but zero, that’s right zero for the mother studio’s highly publicized contender, Wicked: For Good which followed last year’s ten nominations and two wins for Wicked, and along with Sinners had led on the Oscar shortlists with eight mentions. Sinners cashed in with seven of then (missing on a second Song nom), while Wicked: For Good crashed, not even able to land one of Steven Schwartz’s two new song possibilities in the finals. Universal created a major advertising campaign for the second part of Jon M. Chu’s boxoffice blockbuster with the ad line “You Will Be Changed”. The big change it turns out was apparently once was enough. I did not predict it would make the Best Picture list, but its complete wipeout is eye-opening. Oscar is saying, “been there, done that”.

Maybe that is also the reason Avatar: Fire And Ash also went missing in the Best Picture club after the first two installments of James Cameron’s boxoffice juggernaut did land Best Picture nominations. At least it got Visual Effects (which both previous films won) and Costume mentions, the latter a first for the franchise in that category after a concerted push to show the Costume Design branch the clothes created are not virtual but actually fully designed like other movies except, in a test of degree of difficulty, are done twice due to technical requirements. Each of the two previous Avatars walked away with at least one Oscar and you can probably bet this one will continue the tradition.

By the way Sinners was not the only film with a record-setting morning. Hamnet producer Steven Spielberg continued to break his own stellar Academy record, this time with his 14th as a producer, eclipsing all others since the Academy started counting individual producers in 1951. That film is mentioned today also for one of the most talked-about “snubs” for co-star Paul Mescal for whom Focus launched a very visible campaign as Supporting Actor, not the lead many thought he actually was. The film’s PR team had already been booking him for post nomination appearances. He and Buckley presented themselves on the campaign trail as co-equals so when that happens it is kind of hard to buy into squeezing him into supporting. This kind of category fraud is always risky because you run the possibility of canceling yourself out in the Oscars which lets the voters in the actors branch decide where to place you. It is highly likely enough of them put Mescal in the lead actor category while others bought into the supporting push, and with those votes counted separately it probably resulted in a situation where he didn’t get enough in either category to win a nomination.

The other big takeaway , also no surprise, is the continuing growing influence of international voters on the Academy rolls. It was again a huge day for foreign language films, the power of the Cannes Film Festival, and by extension Neon which makes a big push annually at Cannes to either make or acquire the most acclaimed films there. This year that resulted in a record four of the five nominations for Best International Film for both Cannes and Neon with Palme d’Or winner It Was Just An Accident, Sirat, The Secret Agent, and Sentimental Value, the latter film scoring a whopping nine nominations overall. The fact that each of them are multiple nominees is impressive proof of the global imprint on Oscar now. In fact this is the first year in Oscar’s 98 year history that has a foreign language acting nominee in each of the four acting categories (Renate Reinsve, Wagner Moura, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Stellan Skarsgard). And with two films, Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent , also in the Best Picture race it is further proof that subtitles are not only not a hindrance, they are an asset in the continuing globalization of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, a fact that makes me excited to hit the Croisette in May to see what Cannes has in store for the 99th Academy Awards. At Netflix‘s Golden Globes after-party Cannes honcho Thierry Fremaux told me it is looking good “on paper” , but there are still many films to see before the festival’s lineup gets announced in April. Venice, on the other hand, did not score well on the Oscar front and its big hope, another one from Neon, South Korea’s No Other Choice, which is commercially the most successful in its North American run, was left off since clearly voters had plenty of “other choices” this banner year for international.

As for other big winners of the morning there can be no doubt A24’s Marty Supreme was stellar with nine nominations, all in key categories that could make it a sleeper for the upstart indie studio that has two previous Best Picture winners in its short history (Moonlight and Everything Everywhere All At Once). Should Warners split the vote between its two biggies, could this ping pong its way into spoiler position? Right now you have to look at star (and producer) Timothee Chalamet as a front runner in the Best Actor race after wins at Critics Choice and Golden Globes, and the fact he is the only one of last year’s acting nominees to repeat this year. Should he win at the Actor Awards (which he did last year) he could be unstoppable, but Leonardo DiCaprio, in a quest for a second Oscar, is one to watch. With an impressive career eight nominations he is formidable, and his One Battle After Another performance just might be his finest, and that is saying something. Michael B. Jordan in Sinners could get credit on his first nomination for playing two, count ’em two roles. Ethan Hawke could be a dark horse for his towering tour de force as Lorenz Hart in Sony Picture Classics contender, Blue Moon which also got an Original Screenplay nomination. The big question here is getting the branches outside of acting and writing to see this small film with an undeniably brilliant Hawke performance by an actor with four previous nominations (two of them for writing) and popularity within the Academy. Incredibly it has been exactly 40 years since his 1985 debut in Explorers. a longer run than even fellow child actor DiCaprio.

And then there is Netflix which managed to tie Neon for second with an overall 18 nominations (two were for short films) including Frankenstein with nine, but sadly not one in Directing for Guillermo del Toro who did win writing and Best Picture nominations for his passion project. It happens every year. Five of the ten Best Picture nominees don’t have matching ones for Director which just seems so unfair. Though del Toro is up for the DGA award, his spot at the Oscars was taken predictably by a director of a foreign language picture, in this case Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. Netflix can take some comfort in the fact that on Oscar night the streamer and probable heir apparent to owning Warner Bros, could be sharing in the glory with their future partner as Frankenstein looks to be in a strong position for Production Design, Makeup & Hair, and Costume Design, with a fighting chance for Supporting Actor Jacob Elordi. Their Sundance pickup Train Dreams, a second Best Picture nominee for them, has a real shot at Cinematography, their two shorts (The Singers, All The Empty Rooms) are strong entries, and they have to be considered front runners now for Animated Feature and “Golden” for Best Song for KPop: Demon Hunters.

Speaking of the Song category, last year the Academy announced even before the nominations that the five nominees, traditionally performed on the show, would not be for the 97th Oscar broadcast. This year, especially with “Golden” being such an overwhelming smash there was no such pronouncement. Sources have told me they do plan to do the songs on the show, and you can certainly imagine, with that perfect name for Oscar, that “Golden” could open it. No doubt Academy Awards producers were hoping that shortlisted songs from superstars Miley Cyrus , Ed Sheeran, and Billy Idol would make the cut, but instead two tunes from less visible documentaries including the opera docu Via Verde and the inevitable Diane Warren’s “Dear Me” (her 17th overall and 9th in a row), as well as the end title from Train Dreams (added even after the film played at Sundance) heard their names called. We will see how this all plays out on the show.

There can be no doubt that Warner Bros’ Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy are certified winners already with the showing of Sinners, One Battle After Another, Weapons (40 years between nominations for its Supporting Actress nominee Amy Madigan), and the Apple Original Films Best Picture nominee F1 which Warners distributed theatrically.

Coming into this morning’s nominations the undisputed front runner, and winner of Best Picture at nearly every precursor awards ceremony so far this season, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, has been the one to beat. With its 13 nominations it remains in rarefied Oscar territory. Only 15 previous films in Oscar history have had 13 nominations and beyond that 3 films with 14. Of that list 11 of them went on to win Best Picture. Pretty good odds, BUT now we have a movie in Sinners with a startling 16 nominations grabbing all the headlines this Oscar morning and we have to ask how this new found momentum is going to play out, particularly with the fact that the Best Picture category is the only one of the 24 (which includes the new Casting category) that is determined on a preferential ballot with voters ranking their favorites. This is uncharted territory in Oscar history. Can a movie that opened way back on April 18 as Sinners did come all the way back to claim the big prize? Could Ryan Coogler upset Anderson to become the first-ever Black Best Director winner? Can a movie that mixes the blues with vampires break the genre curse? OR will it be something else like Hamnet and its emotional power that helped it defeat Sinners at the Globes, or Marty Supreme which could follow last year’s big winner Anora as the brash upstart indie that wins voters hearts? Or might those increasingly powerful international voters have their own Sentimental favorite?

OR will the movie that has already won one battle after another this season be the one still standing when all is said and done?

The 98th Annual Academy Awards, airing on ABC and streaming on HULU, will be held Sunday March 15 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.