Oscars: Can ‘Sinners’ Win the Best Picture Battle? Yes, It Can.

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Oscar season is never boring.

It was a record-breaking morning for Oscar nominations — and in a season where casual awards watchers were ready to call the race back in September after the debut of Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” we now find ourselves staring at one of the most exciting and dynamic best picture battles.

The reason is simple: “Sinners.”

Ryan Coogler’s audacious horror epic shattered records with 16 Oscar nominations, the most ever for a single film, surpassing “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land,” and reframing the entire season.

“One Battle After Another” still had an undeniably strong showing, landing 13 nominations, including a surprise mention for production design that many pundits weren’t tracking. But it also suffered a notable miss with Chase Infiniti, one of the film’s emotional anchors, was left out of the best actress race.

Both films have clearly earned respect from the industry. They’re critically acclaimed, commercially successful, and steered by two of the most admired auteurs working today. And yet, each faces its own set of hurdles if it hopes to topple the other and claim the Academy’s top prize.

Is this a two-film race? Historically speaking, yes.

When you line up the nomination packages and precursor pathways that usually produce a best picture winner, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” stand distinctly apart.

Chloé Zhao’s lyrical Shakespeare adaptation “Hamnet” landed a healthy eight nominations (a haul most studios would celebrate). But the film suffered key misses, most notably in Paul Mescal for supporting actor, despite his clean sweep of televised precursors, and in film editing. From 1981 through 2013, every best picture winner was also nominated for film editing, and roughly two-thirds of winners have taken the editing prize outright.

While Jessie Buckley appears to be the closest thing this season has to a “locked” acting win, building a complete best picture package around a single performance is a steep climb. Before nominations morning, “Hamnet’s” most plausible path echoed “Terms of Endearment” (1983), which won best picture on the strength of two acting victories for Shirley MacLaine and Jack Nicholson. Without a second acting nominee now in play, Zhao — who previously won best picture and director for “Nomadland” (2020) — appears to be facing an uphill battle.

Netflix enjoyed a strong outing with Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” which amassed nine nominations. The streamer continues its long quest for a first best picture win after near-misses with “Roma” (2018), “The Power of the Dog” (2021) and “All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022). But Del Toro’s absence from the directing category is a significant blow. Winning best picture without a director nomination is rare, with the most recent examples being “Green Book” (2018) and “CODA” (2021). Neither, however, faced competition from nomination juggernauts of this magnitude.

If you’re looking for a precedent that favors “Sinners,” one obvious comparison is the “La La Land” vs. “Moonlight” showdown from the 2016-17 season, when the seemingly unstoppable frontrunner was overtaken at the finish line by a more intimate, emotionally resonant challenger. “Moonlight” won best picture with just a Golden Globe (drama) and a Writers Guild Award.

But there’s another, perhaps more tantalizing parallel.

What if this is like the “Parasite” year?

In that season, Sam Mendes’ “1917” appeared invincible, sweeping the DGA, PGA, BAFTA and Golden Globe awards. Yet momentum quietly shifted after Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” stunned with a SAG ensemble win — notably in a year when “1917” wasn’t even nominated in that category. When Bong’s name was announced for best director by Spike Lee, the night cracked open, paving the way for the first non-English-language best picture winner.

That brings us back to “Sinners,” a film that feels in sync with the cultural moment.

Coogler has consistently defied expectations placed on Black filmmakers, and he commands immense goodwill across the industry. While original screenplay has long seemed his to lose, one Academy voter told me during nomination voting something that stuck: “I know he’s going to win original screenplay, but I want him to win director. That means more. It’s what he deserves.”

Before this year, Coogler had only two Oscar nominations — as a producer on “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021) and as a co-writer for original song on “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2023). Could he now take down Anderson, a beloved auteur with 14 nominations and no competitive wins to his name?

Crazier things have happened. What once felt inevitable now looks competitive.

But the story doesn’t stop with the top two contenders.

If you had told me a year ago that “Jurassic World: Rebirth” would get more Oscar nominations than “Wicked: For Good,” I would’ve said you were defying gravity. Sequels rarely fare well with the Academy, and Jon M. Chu’s musical sequel faced an untested scenario: following a first installment that earned 10 nominations and returning the very next year.

Previously, only “The Bells of St. Mary’s” (1945) followed “Going My Way” (1944), and the latter two entries in “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy — “The Two Towers” (2002) and best picture winner “The Return of the King” (2003) — managed consecutive nominations. Even then, nomination totals dropped significantly from “The Fellowship of the Rings” with 13 and landed with six for “Two Towers.”

The omission of Cynthia Erivo from best actress wasn’t too shocking after she missed Critics Choice and SAG. But Ariana Grande’s shutout stings considering she landed every major televised precursor nomination and “Wicked: For Good” tied “Sinners” for the most shortlist mentions in December. A total blanking of the blockbuster was not on many bingo cards.

International cinema continues its surge, with “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” both landing best picture nominations. The former mounted one of the most impressive comebacks in SAG history, going from zero ensemble recognition to four acting nominations, including Elle Fanning, widely assumed to be the cast’s most likely miss. Director Joachim Trier’s nod, edging out del Toro, further displayed its strength, and now we’ll see a nail-biter for the international feature prize.

A24’s “Marty Supreme” delivered multiple milestones. Timothée Chalamet earned his third best actor nomination for his performance as ping-pong prodigy Marty Mauser, making him the youngest male actor to reach that mark. He’s also nominated as a producer, becoming the youngest individual ever to be double nominated for acting and producing in the same year, surpassing Warren Beatty’s long-standing record set with “Bonnie and Clyde” (1967).

Despite Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins, best actor is far from locked.

Historically, the category skews older. Leonardo DiCaprio famously endured multiple losses before finally climbing into a dead animal carcus and winning at 41 for “The Revenant.” Chalamet, at 30, would be the second-youngest winner ever, behind Adrien Brody for “The Pianist” (2002), who played someone who survived the Holocaust. There’s a real possibility voters decide they have time to reward Timmy down the road.

If true, that leaves an opening for now five-time nominee Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon,” with a classic biopic turn as Lorenz Hart that aligns neatly with the Academy’s comfort zone. A SAG victory could dramatically shift the race, especially since no person has ever won back-to-back SAG trophies in the same category.

The supporting actress category offers some interesting questions to consider.

Amy Madigan stands alone for “Weapons,” a scenario that has worked for some veterans, but only under specific conditions. In the last 25 years, there have been five actors to win as the sole nomination for their movies: Julianne Moore for “Still Alice” (2014), Christopher Plummer in “Beginners” (2010), Penelope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (2008), Forest Whitaker for “The Last King of Scotland” (2006) and Charlize Theron in “Monster” (2003). Two of those were biopics (Whitaker and Theron), two had massive “overdue” narratives (Moore and Plummer), and the other had Kate Winslet shockingly nominated in lead actress instead of supporting after sweeping the televised precursors, so that can be considered a strange anomaly.

Can Madigan still do it? Sure, but it’s much more difficult now.

That dynamic helps explain why Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globe win for “One Battle After Another” has kept her firmly in play, while also leaving space for perhaps Wunmi Mosaku to emerge from “Sinners” or for early BAFTA favorite Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in “Sentimental Value” to make some noise.

And then there’s supporting actor.

It’s too much to break down for a same-day analysis, but let me assert that for now, Stellan Skarsgard is the favorite to win for “Sentimental Value.” However, there’s a Marcia Gay Harden-like victory that could occur for Delroy Lindo, and I’ll wait for BAFTA nominations to have that conversation with more vital information.

So what do this year’s nominations tell us?

Only 50 films were recognized across all categories, matching last year and marking the lowest total since 2008. It was a profoundly top-heavy year. Whether that reflects shrinking viewing habits, an oversaturated landscape or simply an unusually dominant crop of contenders remains to be seen.

Either way, the circuit will answer those questions soon enough.

Final Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to Mar. 5. The 98th Oscars will be held March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien. The first out-of-the-gate winner guesses are below.

Best Picture: “Sinners” (Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler)

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Actor: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”

Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value”

Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Original Screenplay: “Sinners” (Ryan Coogler)

Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Casting: “Sinners” (Francine Maisler)

Animated Feature: “KPop Demon Hunters” (Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong)

Production Design: “Frankenstein” (Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau)

Cinematography: “Sinners” (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)