Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Q4 Results Due Today After Market Close – Here’s What to Expect

TLDR

• Tesla Q4 earnings Wednesday after close: analysts project 43 cents EPS on $24.6 billion revenue versus 73 cents EPS on $25.7 billion year ago
• Q4 vehicle deliveries fell 15% to 418,227 units after federal $7,500 EV tax credit ended in September
• Operating margins expected under 5% as regulatory credit revenue declines following Trump policy shifts
• Focus shifts to robotaxi expansion details, Full Self-Driving subscription model changes, and Optimus robot production timeline
• Tesla removed safety drivers from some Austin robotaxis with Arizona and Nevada expansion updates expected on earnings call

Tesla drops its fourth quarter earnings Wednesday after the closing bell. Brace for disappointing numbers.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Analysts forecast 43 cents per share on $24.6 billion in revenue. Last year’s Q4 brought 73 cents per share on $25.7 billion in sales.

The core EV business struggled throughout the quarter. Tesla delivered just 418,227 vehicles, down 15% from 495,570 units in Q4 2024.

Full year 2025 deliveries hit 1.64 million vehicles. That marks Tesla’s second consecutive year of declining annual sales.

Multiple headwinds hammered results. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired at the end of Q3, creating a pull-forward effect that left Q4 depleted.

Growing competition from traditional automakers grabbed market share. CEO Elon Musk’s political stance may have alienated some buyers too.

Profit margins paint an equally grim picture. Analysts expect operating margins below 5%, down over a percentage point year over year.

Regulatory Credits Dry Up

Tesla’s regulatory credit business is shrinking. The company sells zero-emission vehicle credits to other manufacturers who need them for compliance.

Trump administration policy changes reduced demand for these credits. That revenue stream is evaporating.

Energy storage provided the only bright spot. Tesla deployed a record 14.2 gigawatt hours of battery storage products in Q4, up from 11 gigawatt hours last year.

But car fundamentals don’t drive the stock anymore. Investors care about AI opportunities like self-driving vehicles and robots.

What Matters on the Earnings Call

The earnings call starts at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. Robotaxi details will dominate the conversation.

Tesla runs driverless cab service in Austin using Model Y vehicles. Last week, Musk revealed the company removed safety drivers from some Austin vehicles.

Morgan Stanley predicts 1,000 Tesla robotaxis operating by year end. Investors want updates on expansion into Arizona and Nevada.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives expects robotaxi rollout to be “the major focus.” He called the safety driver removal “an important first step” toward Tesla’s long-term vision.

The Cybercab production timeline matters too. Tesla plans to manufacture this purpose-built robotaxi in 2026 for fleet operations.

FSD and Optimus Updates Coming

Full Self-Driving software is going subscription-only. Musk eliminated the one-time purchase option in favor of $99 monthly subscriptions.

Tesla stripped out basic Autopilot features like lane centering and adaptive cruise control. The move pushes customers toward full FSD subscriptions.

Ives thinks FSD penetration could exceed 50%, which would transform Tesla’s margins.

Optimus humanoid robot updates are expected too. Barclays analyst Dan Levy wants clarity on Optimus v3 capabilities and production readiness.

Musk said Optimus sales could start next year, though his timelines often prove optimistic.

Levy noted Tesla trades at over 125 times earnings with a market cap exceeding $100 billion. Only one other North American company shares those metrics.

The bar is high. “For the stock to further outperform, Tesla will need to show clear progress on its efforts in Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus,” Levy wrote Monday.

Futurum’s Shay Boloor called the upcoming results “very ugly.” But weak earnings won’t matter if Musk delivers concrete progress on Tesla’s AI-driven future during the 5:30 p.m. Eastern time earnings call Wednesday.