We Have ‘One Battle After Another’ About the Oscar Nominations, and Who Will Win

On this week’s episode of Screen Talk, the 2026 Oscar nominations are finally here!

While Ryan Lattanzio is away at Sundance, co-host Anne Thompson is joined by IndieWire Awards Editor Marcus Jones to run through the nominees for most of the categories, determining who we think would be the winner right now, and why.

Though there are several takeaways from what films, actors, and artisans were snubbed, or were surprise nominees, one of the prevailing questions finally answered on nominations morning was to what degree the Academy appreciated Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” the Cannes Grand Prix winner that had been overlooked by SAG and DGA. Nine Academy Award nominations is all the proof Thompson needs to deem the Norway representative the frontrunner to win Best International Feature, but Jones suspects a different nominee released by Neon will be the eventual Oscar winner.

The pair of hosts dive into the complicated Best Documentary Feature category as well, explaining why the Documentary branch finally ended their years-long streak of not nominating films released by Netflix, and why that nominated film “The Perfect Neighbor” is likely to win the category.

Some predictions feel obvious, like streaming phenomenon “KPop Demon Hunters” dominating in the two categories it received nominations in, while other craft categories like Best Sound and Best Cinematography entail more consideration of every nominee being a possible winner.

After navigating through the screenplay and acting categories, which all seem to favor the Golden Globes winners for the most part, the duo have a debate about whether or not Academy voters will go whole hog on “One Battle After Another,” giving Paul Thomas Anderson his first ever Academy Awards for both Best Picture and Best Director.

Keep in mind, “Sinners” broke the record for most Oscar-nominated film of all time with 16 nods, and a Black filmmaker has never won Best Director in the Oscars’ 98-year-old history. Looking ahead, Thompson and Jones explain how BAFTA Awards nominations will be key in determining just how many Oscar categories are actually competitive this year, given its international voting body that’s become increasingly similar to the Academy.

Listen to this week’s podcast episode below or via your favorite podcast platform.